Previous Global Trade Opinion Polls

Survey No. 12 (January 2006)
IIBE&L's latest poll of negotiators and experts shows that most respondents believe the Doha Round is unlikely to end in 2006. Almost nobody sees the newly-agreed negotiating targets being met at the end of April. At the same time, it is generally expected that the American negotiating authority will expire in mid-2007. So where does this leave the Doha Round?

Survey No. 11 (October 2005)
The Institute's 11th Global Trade Opinion Poll finds 58 percent of respondents worried that an unsuccessful meeting in Hong Kong could kill the Doha Round. The early October proposals on agriculture from the USA were key to energizing the negotiations, but not all our respondents think the American proposals are realistic. There is considerable uncertainty among negotiators on the eventual level of ambition for market access for agricultural and industrial products.

Survey No. 10 (April-May 2005)
The Institute's tenth Global Trade Opinion Poll shows good news and bad news for the WTO Round. The good news is that WTO Members will evidently choose the organisation's new Director-General without a repeat of the divisive battle we saw in 1999. The bad news is that the negotiations on trade in services are in serious trouble.

Survey No. 9 (25 July 2004)
Ninth Global Trade Opinion Poll Shows WTO Talks on Razor's Edge
At the start of a critical final week of trade negotiations in Geneva, only about one-third of respondents to the latest IIBE&L poll were willing to predict a successful outcome by the 30 July deadline set by WTO's General Council. In other survey findings, respondents generally believe a package - if agreed - will incorporate the launch of negotiations on a new trade facilitation agreement; appear resigned to acceptance of the Cancun formula for industrial market access; and do not believe that negotiators will set a new deadline for the end of the Doha Round at the end of 2005. Finally, about two-thirds of those covered by the global survey did not believe that Russia would finish its accession to the WTO by the end of the first quarter of 2005.

Survey No. 8
The most interesting thing about the latest Global Trade Opinion Poll results is what seems to be a dramatic turn around in attitudes toward progress in agriculture negotiations. Last February, on 16 percent of poll respondents felt a framework agreement could be agreed for agriculture by mid-2004. The current poll shows a plurality of 40 percent of survey participants believe an agreement will be reached by July, another 28 percent give agreement a fifty-fifty chance and just 30 percent doubt agreement will be possible in that timeframe. (2% had no opinion on the issue).

Survey No. 7 (23 February, 2004)

Survey No. 6 (8 December, 2003)
Sixth Institute poll shows good news and bad news as WTO negotiators approach crucial December meeting

Survey No. 5 analyzes the WTO's Doha Round after Cancun. The latest Institute Poll looks at what went wrong in Cancun, whether the meeting had a chance of success and where the WTO Round goes from here.

Survey No. 4 (End-July, 2003)
The Fourth Global Trade Opinion Poll conducted by the Institute shows an improved outlook for the longstanding debate over intellectual property rights and access to medicines, but the chances for success at WTO's Ministerial Meeting in Cancun on key issues like agriculture and investment look slim.

Survey No. 3 (End-May, 2003)
In the Institute's third series of Global Trade Opinion Polls, 78 percent of respondents see real progress in the Doha Round linked to a mid-summer EU agreement to CAP reform, yet only 27 percent feel WTO Members will need to take action to extend the "Peace Clause" at the end of this year. A lack of progress on issues of importance to developing countries and a continuing failure to reach consensus on investment, competition policy and the other "Singapore issues" promise difficult negotiations at the WTO's Fifth Ministerial in Cancun, Mexico this coming September.

Survey No. 2 (April, 2003)
The Institute's second Poll, conducted in late March, demonstrated rising pessimism among WTO Negotiators on a range of fronts and accurately predicted the filing of a trade dispute against GMO restrictions maintained by Europe.

Survey No. 1 (March, 2003)